Well it seems just like yesterday I started to pen my preview posts for the World Cup in October, and we are already at the Seminal stage and entering the last 3 matches at the World Cup. Its been an interesting tournament and a post-mortem to come in December!

If I look back at my initial predictions in Blog 2, Blog 3 and Blog 4, overall most things went to plan (apart from the mighty England), Australia gave me a scare initially, but without a shadow of a doubt the best 4 teams are in the final 4! So how are the 2 knock out games going to go on Wednesday and Thursday?

Semi Final 1 – India vs New Zealand – Wankhede

Its a re run of the 2019, 2 day Semi Final from Old Trafford. The perennial dark horses of the cricketing world against the superstars and the poster men of world cricket. New Zealand have made the Semi Finals or better in the last 4 ODI world cups. They have plenty of big game experience, and even have an ICC trophy to prove in the form of the ICC World Test Championship 2021 (no prizes for guessing who they beat in the final). India too have got a great record in the ODI world cup in the 21st century having made semi-finals or better in 4 of the 5 tournaments. However since winning the ODI World Cup in 2011 they have won 4 out of a possible 11 knock out games in ICC white ball tournaments But how are they lining up for this game?

Overall Form: India come into the match on the back of a 9 match winning streak, winning the Asia Cup and at the moment could probably walk on water. Roles are very clear across the team. NZ started like a Ferrari, hit 4 speed bumps and just made it across the finishing line. They have had lots of injury worries and definitely have a bruised and weary squad. Can this golden generation of Kiwis give it one last push for an ICC World Cup?

Where will the game be won/lost: I think the toss is going to be important. 4 out of the 5 matches have been won by the side batting first and apart from the Maxwell freak show it would have been 5 out of 5. I wouldn’t go as far as saying win the toss and win the match but it will be a big advantage. I also think the match hinges on who comes out on top between the Indian top order vs the New Zealand new ball bowlers. They had India all at sea in 2019, and India must avoid that at all costs. I feel India have to be positive especially Sharma, to continue with their aggressive power play template. I also think no team has been able to expose India’s lack of 6th bowler yet. Can New Zealand target one of India’s bowlers to really put pressure on Rohit Sharma? They have a very strong middle order who are also great players of spin, if Kuldeep or Jadeja err in their plan, things could get very interesting.

Players to watch: Shubhman Gill, he hasn’t really gotten out of 3rd gear in this tournament, mainly due to dengue at the start. He looked in great touch against Sri Lanka and also against Netherlands, but hasn’t quite kicked on. The Wankhede pitch will suit him and I wont be surprised if we see this young man really stamp his authority on the World Stage. From a NZ perspective, the obvious answers to go to would be Ravindra, Santner or Mitchell. But I think if NZ need to win tomorrow the fast bowlers will have to have a big say. Trent Boult has had an okay tournament by his lofty standards (13 wickets at a shade under 40 going at 5.2 economy) and he will relish tomorrow. Hes played a lot at the Wankhede for the Mumbai Indians, has a great record against India and with India having 6 right handers in the top 7, he will fancy his chances.

Prediction: I hope its a close game which stays competitive at least for more than 90+ overs, but recent form, conditions point to an Indian victory.

Semi Final 2 – South Africa vs Australia – Kolkata

This promises to be one of the games of the tournament. When they met at Lucknow, they didn’t get the crowd, or atmosphere these two sides deserve. Both sides are playing good cricket and this match could go down to the wire. If we look back at history, Australia are over whelming favourites. The great choke of 1999 or the humbling of 2007, South Africa always seem to come off as second best on the greatest stage. However recent history suggests this South African team can go toe to toe with the Aussies and get one over them.

Overall Form: Australia are on a 7 match winning streak and their players are hitting form at the right time. The top order, the all rounders, spin and the new ball bowlers. They have won in all different conditions and i dont think any one would want to face Australia. South Africa have also won 7 games quite easily, but their 2 defeats and their narrow win against Pakistan has highlighted chasing under pressure is still not second nature for them. But Having beaten Australia earlier in the tournament plus the home series win in SA, they will still fancy their chances.

Where will the game be won/lost: The pitches in Kolkata have been typical of the subcontinent of the 90s and early 2000s. A little two paced, batters need to get set before teeing off and difficult to chase on. I feel once again the team winning the toss will bat first, and with both teams possessing quality spinners and genuine threat with the new ball, chasing under lights will not be easy. I also feel Australia need to be aggressive through the middle and think about splitting Smith and Labuschagne. They are both nurdlers and will rotate strike, but if they are setting a big score, sending a maxwell or a Stoinis wouldn’t be the worst idea.

Players to watch: I had predicted Maxwell as the key player for Australia and he has definitely given the best performance of the tournament. However I think Adam Zampa is going to be key here. He’s the top wicket taker (22 wickets at less than 20 going at under 5.3) and could be a real thorn for South Africa. They lost 7 wickets to spin when they played India here and will need to find a way to keep Zampa quiet and target Maxwell or the other all rounders. For South Africa, I think Quinton de Kock hold the key. He’s been their player of the tournament with nearly 600 runs and leading from the front. If South Africa have to chase, I hope QDK takes a more aggressive approach and takes on the Aussie bowlers, he has enough cover with a long batting line up to manage the middle overs.

Prediction: This one is going to be very close, and could rival the Edgbaston 1999 or even Auckland 2015 as one of the great Semi Finals. I’m going to back my gut from the start of the tournament and for Australia to squeeze through.

Regardless of the results of these two matches, I think we are in for a blockbuster finish!