This is arguably one of the marquee cricketing events of 2024 as I had stated at the start of the year. Whilst there is palpable excitement and expectation before this series kicks off, you also get the feeling its been a very long and tiring year with a lot of cricket for both teams (India 11 test matches, 26 T20s and 3 ODIs and Australia 5 test matches, 22 T20s and 8 ODIs). There has been plenty of noise on the back of India’s drubbing by New Zealand, that an underconfident and ageing India side will have its work cut out against Australia. Whilst, the Indian team is surely under pressure, I don’t think the narrative is quite as clear cut. I think this is definitely the last BGT series for the core of both teams (Sharma, Kohli, Ashwin, Jadeja, Smith, Khawaja, Starc, Hazlewood and Lyon) but India has a younger squad vs the hosts (29 vs 33). In this blog i would like to do a simple SWOT for both the teams and what i think the final series score line will be.

SWOT: INDIA

It was all going so well for India in their year of redemption after getting thumped in two world finals last year (who else but Australia) . Its been a dream year as they won the T20 world cup, won every T20 series ( losing only 2 matches all year). Even in Test Cricket, until the NZ series they had lost just 1 match winning the rest. This provides a bit of context that this is still a top side and shouldn’t be shunted after just one bad series.

Strengths

Positive Recent Experience of Australia: Its a very strange one, but India has had a very good record in Australia in the last 7-8 years across formats. This group of players have done well, as the conditions have suited them. With the increased use of drop in wickets, the kookaburra ball results in limited swing and generally good batting wickets.

World-Class Spin Attack: India’s spin attack is among the best in the world, with Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja being key players. These spinners can still be potent even in Australia, as seen in previous Border-Gavaskar series. The challenge will be if they ever decide to play both in the XI. It seems unlikely in Perth and the Day night test in Adelaide, but perhaps Sydney and Melbourne.

Weakness

Fitness Concerns: Injuries have plagued key players like Rishabh Pant, who is a game-changer for India in both batting and keeping roles. If Pant is unavailable, India may miss his dynamic presence. Fitness issues with fast bowlers or any key player could hurt India’s chances, especially in long Test matches.

Pressure and Distractions: While India has a solid record, the pressure of defending their title in Australia might weigh heavily on the players. The expectation to perform could create stress, especially if the series is close. It also seems like there is a lot going on, with the skipper joining late, a new fiery coach who might turn up the heat, and of course the pressure on the back of the NZ defeat

Opportunities

Young Players Rising to the Challenge: Players like Shubman Gill, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Nitish Reddy and others have the potential to take on the Australian pace attack and make a difference. We saw this happen on the last tour and i think there is every chance there could be an encore.

Early wickets: The Australian batting line up at the top could be up for grabs. A debutant, a left hander with an average record against India, and Steve Smith whos had an indifferent year in test cricket this year. If India nip out a few wickets early they can really put the middle order under pressure.

Threats

Australian Pace Attack: The major threat for India is Australia’s pace attack, which could trouble the Indian batters early in the innings with bounce, seam, and swing. If India doesn’t handle the pace well, they could struggle to put up big totals.

Slow Start: Australia’s aggressive mindset and mental toughness might overwhelm Indian players if they don’t adjust quickly to the fast conditions, which could lead to India’s downfall in crucial moments. If they dont compete in the first couple of tests, it might be impossible to catch the hosts

SWOT: Australia

Strengths

Home Advantage: Australia has the advantage of playing on home soil, where they are accustomed to the conditions. Australian pitches generally favor fast bowlers and offer bounce, which plays to the strengths of their pacers. The familiarity with the local conditions, both weather and pitch types, gives Australia a psychological edge.

World-Class Fast Bowling Attack: Australia’s pace attack is one of the best in the world, led by Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, and Josh Hazlewood. They have the ability to extract bounce, pace, and swing from Australian pitches, which could be challenging for India’s batters. Australia’s bowlers are used to bowling long spells on flat pitches, which is crucial in Test cricket.

Weakness

Vulnerability to Spin (Especially on Turning Pitches): While Australia has an excellent fast bowling attack, they have struggled historically against spin, particularly on turning tracks. If India’s spinners, such as Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja, can find form, they could expose Australia’s batsmen. Some Australian players have technical flaws against quality spin bowling, which may be an issue even in Australian conditions where spinners are not as prominent.

Top Order Consistency: While the top order has experienced players, there are questions about their consistency. David Warner, in particular, has had fluctuating performances in recent years. The opening partnership might be a weak link if they fail to get good starts.

Opportunities

Experience and Mental Toughness: Australia’s Test team is full of experienced players who have been part of many challenging series, especially in their own conditions. The team has a reputation for resilience and can bounce back in tough situations.

Starve Bumrah: If Australia can counter ensure they dont let Bumrah take wickets early on, that will really put a lot of pressure on the bowling line up. The rest of the quicks dont have the ability to run through the line up and spinners are unlikely to do that on Aussie pitches

Threats

Injuries to quicks: Australia have had the same quicks operating for the last few years, but with an average age of more than 34, they will need to be careful and rotate them well, else there’s danger of them not lasting the summer

Series Score line – I do think the series will be closer than what pundits are predicting, but still think Australia will win comfortably 3-1.